Economists of the Institute of Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences have named the equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble. According to experts, the “golden mean” is now the exchange rate in the range of 60-65 rubles per dollar. About this on Saturday, May 28, RBC writes .
At the same time, economists noted that before the introduction of new Western sanctions, the exchange rate was underestimated due to the operation of the budget rule to replenish the National Wealth Fund from oil and gas revenues.
The experts explained that the balance of the exchange rate should be determined by three factors: the budget deficit, capital outflow and the level of the trade balance. In the latter case, at the moment there is a significant preponderance towards the balance.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Maxim Reshetnikov, said that the current dollar exchange rate is near a local minimum, a gradual return to the previous equilibrium ruble exchange rate is necessary. He noted that the current exchange rate is a problem in the long run, because the real effective exchange rate is 40% stronger than in the last five years. The minister added that the Russian Federation is gradually lifting restrictions in the financial sector, and the Central Bank has the opportunity for a new reduction in the key rate in early June.
Earlier on Saturday, the American television channel CBS called the ruble the most stable and efficient currency of the year. The reason for the strengthening of the currency is called the rapid rise in energy prices and control over the outflow of capital by the Central Bank of Russia. An important role was also played by Russia’s demand for the conversion of gas fees into rubles.
On May 23, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation reported that the strengthening of the ruble had reached its peak. Stock market expert Dmitry Babin, in turn, said that the dollar and euro quotes are approaching their lows .