Salma Tanvir is a popular name in Pakistan now. Until 2013, he ran a school in Lahore. Salma and her husband were known as devout. He also went to Mecca six times. Suddenly everything changes. The imam of a local mosque complained that Salma did not consider Muhammad (pbuh) to be the last prophet. He was charged under the Blasphemy Act. On September 26, a lower court in Lahore convicted Salma and sentenced her to death by hanging. Salma’s body was told to hang until death was confirmed.
Nearly 2,000 people have been convicted in Pakistan since the blasphemy laws were tightened in the 1980s. 126 of them were beaten to death by angry mobs. However, no one sentenced to death has been executed so far. For this reason, Salma’s sentence may not be implemented. However, this incident has shown the picture of social division in Pakistan.
Pakistan is quite strong militarily. The country has nuclear weapons. There is a modern democratic system. The country’s judicial system is run by skilled professionals. But on the contrary, there are medieval cruel laws in force in Pakistan. A large section of the common people of the country is lagging behind in education. Pakistani politicians like to use both cruel laws and poorly educated people in the politics of that vote.
The situation in neighboring Pakistan is also changing after the resurgence of the hardline Taliban in Afghanistan. The departure of the West from the country and the Taliban’s takeover of power are both a source of relief and concern for Pakistan. For years, Pakistan’s ruling party has supported the Taliban. Islamabad is still a close ally of the Taliban. Pakistan is playing a key role in communicating with the outside world about Taliban-controlled Kabul. Through this, the rulers of Pakistan want to increase the influence and acceptance of Pakistan’s diplomacy in world politics and its commercial potential.
But Pakistan, a country of 220 million people, is somewhat worried about the resurgence of the Taliban in neighboring countries. This is because the less educated people in Pakistan may become more militant under the influence of the Taliban. The number of victims like Salma may increase in the country. According to a recent poll by Gallup, a US-based think tank, 55 percent of Pakistanis are satisfied with the Taliban’s takeover of neighboring Afghanistan.
A section of Pakistanis believe that the rise of the Taliban in Kabul could lead to a proliferation of jihadist activities, terrorism and refugees across the border into Pakistan. Unwanted interference from outside forces may occur. Meanwhile, hardline Islamists have flown a Taliban flag at a mosque in Islamabad. Attacks by extremist Islamists in Pakistan have been on the decline for several years. Now it has started to grow.
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, an online media watchdog, there have been six major attacks in Pakistan in the nine months from January to September this year. At least 329 people were killed. In the last two months (August-September), these incidents have increased in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area.
After the capture of Kabul, Taliban fighters opened the gates of various prisons in Afghanistan. Released the prisoners. Among them are hardline Islamists, many accused of supporting terrorism. This has also raised concerns in Pakistan. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its leader Fakir Mohammad have been accused of carrying out several deadly attacks in Pakistan’s history.
The TTP has more than 5,000 active members across Afghanistan. Fakir Mohammad has been released from prison after the Taliban took control of Kabul. After his release from prison, the TTP leader announced the introduction of Islamic Sharia law in Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. This could lead to more violence in Pakistan in the future. Even Pakistani columnist Mosharraf Zaidi thinks so.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan is running the country with a balance between the military and religious forces, critics at home and abroad say. They also think that there are indications of this in Imran Khan’s various works. The government of Pakistan has recently proposed a law. It said Pakistan’s armed forces could not be ridiculed or insulted. The armed forces must refrain from doing things that are notorious. Any civilian doing so will be considered a criminal. It carries a minimum sentence of two years in prison. Imran Khan sat in a meeting with religious leaders last month. At the meeting, he announced that his government would not pass any law that went against religious norms.
Imran Khan is still a bit hesitant about Pakistan’s Taliban policy. The United States was once a friend of Islamabad. But this time, after the change of Kabul, Pakistan did not have Washington in that sense. US President Joe Biden did not call Imran Khan. Imran Khan is frustrated with this. In a column in the Washington Post, he said the Afghan government forces, equipped with modern weapons and trained in the West, did not pay any attention to the Taliban. There is no point in blaming Pakistan for this. On the contrary, Pakistanis have also given their lives due to the conflicting environment in the neighboring country. Money has been spent.
But one thing Imran Khan has avoided is the good Afghan-Taliban bilateral relations with Pakistan. Islamists in Pakistan have close ties with the Taliban. Taliban leaders are also developing ties with Pakistan’s influential intelligence agency, the ISI. As a result, Imran has virtually avoided the rumors and criticisms about the role of Pakistani generals behind the rise of jihadists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Imran Khan has claimed that between 2008 and 2015, Pakistan was the victim of 16,000 terrorist attacks, both large and small. However, the Pakistani government has blamed the attacks on India’s arch-rival India. However, he did not comment on the role of minority groups on either side of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border or their role in the safe haven of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a secure Pakistani military base.
The resurgence of the Taliban is being considered virtually advantageous for Imran Khan. Since winning the 2016 election, he has been struggling to maintain his popularity. Many Pakistanis think that Imran Khan is sitting in the masnad as a puppet. The real power is in the hands of the army. On the other hand, to consolidate power, Imran Khan has started a crusade against former politicians and government bureaucrats in the name of curbing corruption. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has left the country. However, the latest Pandora Papers and other news of Imran’s close associates have come to light at different times. Imran Khan’s government has also curbed the freedom of the media.
Pakistan’s strategic victory in the coming days on the Afghanistan issue depends entirely on Imran Khan’s prudence and foresight. He has to take the initiative in terms of the real situation and explain it to the whole world. The ‘poor friend’ needs to raise financial and humanitarian aid for the Taliban. His political future depends on tackling this challenge.
At the time of the Corona epidemic, Imran Khan’s Pakistan was in a much better position than its neighbors. Neighboring Iran had ten times the death rate per million in Corona compared to Pakistan. The world has seen the miserable situation in India, Pakistan was much safer than that. At that time, Imran Khan was criticized for not imposing strict restrictions across the country like in India. But now his decision has proved fruitful. Despite declining popularity for several years, a survey at the end of August found that 48 per cent of Pakistanis were satisfied with Imran Khan’s performance as prime minister.
One of the achievements of Prime Minister Imran Khan in dealing with Corona is to keep the field of politics virtually unrivaled. Since taking power, Imran Khan has not allowed any major movement against him. No significant face of the opposition has been seen so far to fight against him in the 2023 elections. Through this, Imran Khan is going to touch two records. First, he is going to be the first Prime Minister of Pakistan to be in power for a full term. Second, he would be the first Pakistani prime minister to hold office for two consecutive terms unless a major incident occurs.
India has been very active in Afghanistan for a long time. Now that opportunity has come in front of the Pakistani intelligence. There are two more issues for Pakistan. One of them is the change of power in Kabul without bloodshed. The other is to side with China, a close ally on the Taliban issue. However, Islamabad has distanced itself from the United States in this process.
Pakistan’s influence on Afghan soil has been seen in the Taliban’s participatory government. Under pressure from Pakistan, the country’s allies have been placed in several influential ministries in the current Afghan government. For example, the name of the Haqqani Network. Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, the outgoing head of the ISI, fled to Kabul just before the formation of the Taliban government. Analysts believe that he ended his visit to Kabul by confirming the influence of ISI, the Pakistani military and Imran Khan’s government in the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
The reshuffle in Kabul is expected to benefit both Pakistan’s military and civilian government. The people concerned are also hoping that this situation will give Imran Khan a chance to pull the country’s fragile economy. Over the past decade, Pakistan’s per capita income growth has been less than 2 percent a year. The country’s per capita income stands at ২০০ 1,200, less than two-thirds of India’s. Afghanistan has the lowest life expectancy among South Asian countries. Pakistan on top of that. The country’s export sector is booming. In contrast, imports are growing rapidly. Especially from China. Chinese import dependence has put Pakistan’s local small industry at risk. However, there is only one glimmer of hope, Pakistan’s growing expatriate income is on the rise.
Imran Khan came to power with a promise to build a welfare Islamic state. But the economy is fragile. He turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prevent the economy from collapsing. The company agreed to lend ছয় 6 billion to Pakistan in 2019. The IMF has not yet released the entire amount. Of this, Pakistan’s external debt stood at ২ 122 billion in July.
Pakistan has borrowed heavily from its close ally China. In return, Beijing is taking the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative with Pakistan. Special Economic Corridor (EPEC) between China and Pakistan has been set up. China has so far invested 6 billion in these projects on Pakistani soil. But critics say Islamabad has fallen into the trap of Chinese debt. According to research firm Aidata, Beijing has pledged দশ 34.3 billion in aid to Pakistan between 2000 and 2016. Of this, ৭ 26.6 billion is conditional loans.
Not only in the economic field, but also in the military sector, Islamabad’s Chinese dependence is growing more than ever. Pakistan accounted for 36 percent of China’s arms exports between 2016 and 2020, according to the think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. However, one incident after another of terrorist attacks has remained a challenge to the Sino-Pakistani alliance. Pakistan has not been able to stop these attacks on officials and employees of Chinese projects on Pakistani soil. But to keep China happy, Imran Khan has kept quiet about allegations of Chinese government persecution of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang.
According to Michael Kugelman, a researcher at the Wilson Center, a think tank in the United States, Imran Khan now faces three challenges. Rapidly pulling the collapsing economy, clarifying state policy on Xinjiang while maintaining alliance with China, and effectively handling the potential humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. He has to be tactful in facing these challenges. At the same time, his personal acceptance at home and abroad must be maintained. Then Imran Khan’s political life will survive successfully.
